The recent global market sell-off, driven by the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, has shifted attention to the yuan, another currency commonly used for carry trading. Despite a notable 2% appreciation of the yuan against the dollar in August, experts suggest that yuan carry trades are less vulnerable to sudden reversals compared to their yen counterparts.
Understanding the Yuan Carry Trade
Carry trades typically involve borrowing low-yielding currencies, like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc, to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as currencies or leveraged stock trades. The yuan carry trade operates on a similar principle but with some constraints due to the yuan's partial convertibility.
In the yuan carry trade, Chinese exporters often hold cash in dollars rather than yuan to benefit from higher returns. Foreign investors might borrow yuan to invest in China's mainland markets, or use offshore yuan to purchase bonds denominated in dollars and other currencies.
Evolution of the Yuan Carry Trade
The dynamics of the yuan carry trade changed significantly starting in 2022. As the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates and Beijing adopted a more accommodative monetary policy to support its economy, the interest rate differential between the yuan and the dollar became pronounced. This disparity made dollar deposits more attractive compared to yuan deposits, contributing to the yuan's depreciation.
This depreciation allowed foreign investors to exploit dollar-yuan swap trades, benefiting from both favorable exchange rates and returns on U.S. assets. Additionally, the depreciation enabled investors to borrow yuan at lower rates and invest in dollar-denominated assets.
Scale and Impact of the Yuan Carry Trade
Quantifying the total size of the yuan carry trade is challenging, but it is generally considered smaller than yen-funded carry trades due to the yuan's less liquid nature. Macquarie estimates that since 2022, Chinese exporters and multinational companies have amassed over $500 billion in foreign currency holdings.
Foreign investments in onshore yuan bonds have surged, with holdings reaching a record high of 920 billion yuan ($128.12 billion) as of June. This indicates a reverse yuan carry trade, where investors borrow U.S. dollars to purchase yuan bonds, benefiting from favorable currency-hedged swap trades.
Future Prospects for Yuan Carry Trades
The unwinding of yen carry trades, prompted by recent interest rate increases in Japan, has raised questions about the stability of yuan carry trades. UBS notes a reduction in short positions on the offshore yuan, reflecting its growing divergence from the yen's influence.
The potential unwinding of yuan carry trades is contingent on future economic conditions, including domestic demand in China and the trajectory of interest rates. Macquarie's chief China economist, Larry Hu, predicts that the yuan carry trade may unwind if domestic economic conditions improve and if policy stimulus becomes more impactful.
Overall, while the yuan carry trade is currently resilient, its future will depend on shifts in China's economic policies and global interest rates.
(Source:www,reuters.com)
Understanding the Yuan Carry Trade
Carry trades typically involve borrowing low-yielding currencies, like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc, to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as currencies or leveraged stock trades. The yuan carry trade operates on a similar principle but with some constraints due to the yuan's partial convertibility.
In the yuan carry trade, Chinese exporters often hold cash in dollars rather than yuan to benefit from higher returns. Foreign investors might borrow yuan to invest in China's mainland markets, or use offshore yuan to purchase bonds denominated in dollars and other currencies.
Evolution of the Yuan Carry Trade
The dynamics of the yuan carry trade changed significantly starting in 2022. As the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates and Beijing adopted a more accommodative monetary policy to support its economy, the interest rate differential between the yuan and the dollar became pronounced. This disparity made dollar deposits more attractive compared to yuan deposits, contributing to the yuan's depreciation.
This depreciation allowed foreign investors to exploit dollar-yuan swap trades, benefiting from both favorable exchange rates and returns on U.S. assets. Additionally, the depreciation enabled investors to borrow yuan at lower rates and invest in dollar-denominated assets.
Scale and Impact of the Yuan Carry Trade
Quantifying the total size of the yuan carry trade is challenging, but it is generally considered smaller than yen-funded carry trades due to the yuan's less liquid nature. Macquarie estimates that since 2022, Chinese exporters and multinational companies have amassed over $500 billion in foreign currency holdings.
Foreign investments in onshore yuan bonds have surged, with holdings reaching a record high of 920 billion yuan ($128.12 billion) as of June. This indicates a reverse yuan carry trade, where investors borrow U.S. dollars to purchase yuan bonds, benefiting from favorable currency-hedged swap trades.
Future Prospects for Yuan Carry Trades
The unwinding of yen carry trades, prompted by recent interest rate increases in Japan, has raised questions about the stability of yuan carry trades. UBS notes a reduction in short positions on the offshore yuan, reflecting its growing divergence from the yen's influence.
The potential unwinding of yuan carry trades is contingent on future economic conditions, including domestic demand in China and the trajectory of interest rates. Macquarie's chief China economist, Larry Hu, predicts that the yuan carry trade may unwind if domestic economic conditions improve and if policy stimulus becomes more impactful.
Overall, while the yuan carry trade is currently resilient, its future will depend on shifts in China's economic policies and global interest rates.
(Source:www,reuters.com)