The outcome of the fight will be decided not only on the battlefield but also in Western capitals and other locations away from the front lines as the war in Ukraine approaches its third year.
The ability of Kyiv to fend against Russia's invasion is largely dependent on the military, financial, and political support of the West, as Ukrainian forces are currently behind, outgunned, and forced to retreat in some regions.
The following are some variables that could affect Western backing for Ukraine in the upcoming year:
American Help Package in Congress
Western and Ukrainian authorities claim that a measure that is stalled in the U.S. Congress and contains over $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, the majority of it military, is essential for Kyiv's forces.
"With each passing week, the number of casualties on the front lines in Ukraine will increase," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated at a significant security gathering in Munich last weekend.
The package, which also includes assistance for Taiwan and Israel, was approved by the U.S. Senate on February 13. However, Republicans in the House of Representatives who are close to former President Donald Trump are strongly opposed to it. The White House has put pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to schedule a vote on the plan, but Johnson has resisted.
After speaking with American politicians at the Munich conference, European officials expressed a little increase in optimism for the legislation's chances, but they still anticipated that it would take some time to pass, if it does so at all.
Provision of Ammunition
Thousands of shells are fired daily by both sides in what has become a gruelling artillery battle for the majority of the conflict.
For the most of 2023, researchers predict that Ukraine would launch more shells than Russia, but as Moscow has increased production and purchased rounds from North Korea and Iran, the situation has changed.
According to researcher Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank located in Washington, Russia's artillery is firing five times as often as Ukraine's.
According to Professor Justin Bronk, a researcher at the British defence think tank RUSI, "whether Western partners can catch up to Russian artillery production and supply Ukraine with the shells and barrels they need" will be a crucial consideration for Kyiv this year.
Weapons Decisions
Leaders in Ukraine have also been pressuring their counterparts in the West to supply additional weaponry, particularly longer-range missiles like Germany's Taurus and the United States' ATACMS that can hit farther behind Russian lines.
"Ammunition output cannot be increased over night. However, we can act quickly to provide the Ukrainians with the weaponry they truly require," stated close ally of the Ukrainian government and former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Only older, medium-range ATACMS have been delivered by the United States, but the Biden administration is currently attempting to provide newer, longer-range weapons. Any such action, though, might be contingent on the House passing the aid bill that is presently being held up.
Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, has rejected requests from Ukraine and several NATO partners to provide the cutting-edge Taurus system.
German officials have expressed worries that the missiles would be perceived as more direct German engagement in the conflict and that they might intensify the fighting within Russian territory.
Middle East War
Due to the conflict in Gaza, which was started by Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, Western leaders have been less able to focus their political and temporal resources on Ukraine. That will be even more the case if things worsen or turn into a regional conflict.
Furthermore, the West has been accused by leaders in the Global South of applying different standards to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, which has made it more challenging for Kyiv and its supporters to mobilise support for a summit in favour of Ukraine's peace plan.
"Russia is definitely benefiting from those developments," said Vsevolod Chentsov, Ukraine's ambassador to the European Union.
"We work with the Global South, we try to engage them as much as possible in our efforts ... We keep working on that, it's a difficult issue."
NATO Summit, Washington, July 9-11
The summit might not have an immediate impact on the battlefield, but it might have an impact on Ukraine's political climate and morale.
NATO members promise to take an assault on one of them as an attack on all. Ukraine and some of its allies are still pushing for NATO to extend an invitation to Kyiv to join the alliance, or at the very least move the nation closer to membership.
However, diplomats say that the United States, which is NATO's leading nation, and Germany are among those opposing the move, because it would push the alliance into a direct confrontation with Russia.
In an attempt to sway the result of the Washington summit, former NATO chief Jensen is collaborating with the Ukrainian government and a number of prominent international personalities on a plan that would outline a clear route to membership.
US Presidential Election
During his time as president, Trump was a vocal opponent of NATO and frequently threatened to leave the organisation. He stopped giving NATO defence financing and often claimed that the US was paying more than its fair share.
Though he hasn't offered many concrete policy recommendations, Trump has bemoaned the billions of dollars that have been spent thus far and urged for a de-escalation of Russia's war in Ukraine.
In large part, President Joe Biden, 81, decided to run for a second term because he was certain he would face President Trump, 77, and because he believes he is the Democrat who can defeat him in November.
But according to public opinion surveys, he is tied with Trump, and Americans are still concerned about high costs and have doubts about his age, his plans for the economy, and his views towards the border and the Middle East.
Despite his increasing legal issues, Trump has maintained a commanding lead over his competitors for the Republican nomination.
But according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted earlier this month, over half of independent respondents and one in four self-identified Republicans stated they would not support Trump in the event if a jury found him guilty of a criminal.
(Source:www.reuters.com)
The ability of Kyiv to fend against Russia's invasion is largely dependent on the military, financial, and political support of the West, as Ukrainian forces are currently behind, outgunned, and forced to retreat in some regions.
The following are some variables that could affect Western backing for Ukraine in the upcoming year:
American Help Package in Congress
Western and Ukrainian authorities claim that a measure that is stalled in the U.S. Congress and contains over $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, the majority of it military, is essential for Kyiv's forces.
"With each passing week, the number of casualties on the front lines in Ukraine will increase," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated at a significant security gathering in Munich last weekend.
The package, which also includes assistance for Taiwan and Israel, was approved by the U.S. Senate on February 13. However, Republicans in the House of Representatives who are close to former President Donald Trump are strongly opposed to it. The White House has put pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to schedule a vote on the plan, but Johnson has resisted.
After speaking with American politicians at the Munich conference, European officials expressed a little increase in optimism for the legislation's chances, but they still anticipated that it would take some time to pass, if it does so at all.
Provision of Ammunition
Thousands of shells are fired daily by both sides in what has become a gruelling artillery battle for the majority of the conflict.
For the most of 2023, researchers predict that Ukraine would launch more shells than Russia, but as Moscow has increased production and purchased rounds from North Korea and Iran, the situation has changed.
According to researcher Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank located in Washington, Russia's artillery is firing five times as often as Ukraine's.
According to Professor Justin Bronk, a researcher at the British defence think tank RUSI, "whether Western partners can catch up to Russian artillery production and supply Ukraine with the shells and barrels they need" will be a crucial consideration for Kyiv this year.
Weapons Decisions
Leaders in Ukraine have also been pressuring their counterparts in the West to supply additional weaponry, particularly longer-range missiles like Germany's Taurus and the United States' ATACMS that can hit farther behind Russian lines.
"Ammunition output cannot be increased over night. However, we can act quickly to provide the Ukrainians with the weaponry they truly require," stated close ally of the Ukrainian government and former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Only older, medium-range ATACMS have been delivered by the United States, but the Biden administration is currently attempting to provide newer, longer-range weapons. Any such action, though, might be contingent on the House passing the aid bill that is presently being held up.
Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, has rejected requests from Ukraine and several NATO partners to provide the cutting-edge Taurus system.
German officials have expressed worries that the missiles would be perceived as more direct German engagement in the conflict and that they might intensify the fighting within Russian territory.
Middle East War
Due to the conflict in Gaza, which was started by Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, Western leaders have been less able to focus their political and temporal resources on Ukraine. That will be even more the case if things worsen or turn into a regional conflict.
Furthermore, the West has been accused by leaders in the Global South of applying different standards to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, which has made it more challenging for Kyiv and its supporters to mobilise support for a summit in favour of Ukraine's peace plan.
"Russia is definitely benefiting from those developments," said Vsevolod Chentsov, Ukraine's ambassador to the European Union.
"We work with the Global South, we try to engage them as much as possible in our efforts ... We keep working on that, it's a difficult issue."
NATO Summit, Washington, July 9-11
The summit might not have an immediate impact on the battlefield, but it might have an impact on Ukraine's political climate and morale.
NATO members promise to take an assault on one of them as an attack on all. Ukraine and some of its allies are still pushing for NATO to extend an invitation to Kyiv to join the alliance, or at the very least move the nation closer to membership.
However, diplomats say that the United States, which is NATO's leading nation, and Germany are among those opposing the move, because it would push the alliance into a direct confrontation with Russia.
In an attempt to sway the result of the Washington summit, former NATO chief Jensen is collaborating with the Ukrainian government and a number of prominent international personalities on a plan that would outline a clear route to membership.
US Presidential Election
During his time as president, Trump was a vocal opponent of NATO and frequently threatened to leave the organisation. He stopped giving NATO defence financing and often claimed that the US was paying more than its fair share.
Though he hasn't offered many concrete policy recommendations, Trump has bemoaned the billions of dollars that have been spent thus far and urged for a de-escalation of Russia's war in Ukraine.
In large part, President Joe Biden, 81, decided to run for a second term because he was certain he would face President Trump, 77, and because he believes he is the Democrat who can defeat him in November.
But according to public opinion surveys, he is tied with Trump, and Americans are still concerned about high costs and have doubts about his age, his plans for the economy, and his views towards the border and the Middle East.
Despite his increasing legal issues, Trump has maintained a commanding lead over his competitors for the Republican nomination.
But according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted earlier this month, over half of independent respondents and one in four self-identified Republicans stated they would not support Trump in the event if a jury found him guilty of a criminal.
(Source:www.reuters.com)
