Daily Management Review

Moderna Anticipates Private Market Sales Of Covid Shots Reaching $4 Billion In 2023


08/04/2023




Moderna Anticipates Private Market Sales Of Covid Shots Reaching $4 Billion In 2023
When sales of the COVID-19 vaccine go from government contracts to the private market this year, Moderna Inc. projects up to $4 billion in revenue, and it anticipates further demand growth in 2024 to match the market for flu injections.
 
The manufacturer of the vaccine projects $4 billion in sales to governments this year and between $2 and $4 billion for the shot's private market in the US and other nations. Prior to this, $5 billion in sales from government contracts were anticipated.
 
The market for COVID vaccinations, which is supported by the government, is contracting, and rival Pfizer and Moderna both reported sharp drops in sales of their shots during the second quarter.
 
Both businesses are now planning an autumn vaccination campaign utilising revised vaccines that target the XBB.1.5 Omicron coronavirus subvariant, and at a price that is much higher than what they had previously paid governments.
 
According to American health officials, COVID hospitalisations and cases have started to climb once more.
 
The flu market, which Moderna estimates to be 150 million doses annually in the U.S., will account for 50 to 100 million doses of the vaccine demand in the U.S. during the autumn season, according to Moderna.
 
"Over time, given the high disease burden and also as we think about future combinations (with RSV and flu shots), we will start trending closer to about 150 million," Chief Commercial Officer Arpa Garay said on a conference call.
 
Although Moderna and Pfizer have not yet disclosed a final price for their vaccinations on the private market, they have stated that consumers should anticipate them to be far more expensive than what they charged governments during the pandemic's height.
 
In March, Moderna informed Reuters that it anticipated charging roughly $130 for its COVID vaccination in the US. In the beginning, the business charged between $25 and $37 per dose for the COVID vaccine when it was first made available in late 2020.
 
Moderna's stock gained less than 1% in afternoon trading, giving up some of its earlier gains.
 
Sales of the COVID vaccination by Moderna fell 94% to $293 million in the second quarter. According to data from Refinitiv, that nevertheless beat analysts' average expectation of $233.6 million.
 
The $1 billion in projected vaccine sales to governments this year, according to Moderna, have been postponed to the following year. Research & development expenses for the corporation increased 62% to $1.1 billion during the quarter.
 
Mani Foroohar, an analyst at Leerink Partners, said it was upsetting to see the business squander cash as revenue was postponed and sales on the private market were unknown.
 
"The setup commercially continues to be quite challenging, which serially increases the risk on the research & development side," he said.
 
Moderna is attempting to offset declining sales of the COVID vaccine with other goods, such its experimental RSV and flu vaccines that also make use of messenger RNA technology.
 
"(Phase 3) flu data later this quarter will be an important event, and the rest of the pipeline remains on track," TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren said.
 
The business stated that it had already started producing the shot in anticipation of an approval and that it was getting ready for the introduction of its next commercial product, an RSV vaccine, in 2024.
 
Moderna reported a net loss of $3.62 per share, which was less than the $4.04 loss that analysts had predicted on average.
 
(Source:www.whbl.com)