Daily Management Review

Market waits for ECB rate cut after inflation in France and Spain falls below 2%


09/30/2024


Bloomberg reports that the market's expectation of a cut in key interest rates by the European Central Bank in October increased following data showing a significant decrease in inflation in France and Spain.



European Central Bank via flickr
European Central Bank via flickr
Traders currently predict roughly an 80% probability of a reduction of 25 basis points in the main ECB rates during the upcoming meeting scheduled for 17 October. Analysts from both BNP Paribas and HSBC are likewise anticipating the same outcome.

In France, consumer prices aligned with European Union standards rose by 1.5% annually in September, following a 2.2% increase in August. Preliminary data from Spain revealed that consumer prices increased by 1.7%, marking the slowest growth since June 2023, with inflation at 2.4% in August.

The European Central Bank has set the deposit rate at 3.5%, the main refinancing operations rate at 3.65%, and the marginal lending rate at 3.9%.

On 30 September, initial information on inflation in Italy and Germany for September will be made public, and on 1 October, a summary indicator for the euro area will be revealed.

source: bloomberg.com