IMF extends forecast for end of conflict in Ukraine


10/21/2024

The IMF recently published a revised report on Ukraine, adjusting its predictions for the length of the conflict in the country to extend until 2025 according to its baseline scenario.



Ministry of Defense of Ukraine via flickr
According to the IMF's pessimistic forecast, the conflict is anticipated to conclude by mid-2026. The fund's report from last year indicated that in the worst-case scenario, the conflict is expected to conclude by the end of 2025.

The IMF observed that Ukraine's economy showed greater resilience than anticipated in the first six months of 2024. However, due to the extended conflict, the fund has adjusted its predictions for Ukraine's macroeconomic performance in late 2024 and 2025, showing a decline compared to the previous assessment.

The fund mentions concerns about Ukraine's energy sector and the timing of global assistance. According to the report, Ukraine faces 'additional financing needs' due to the prolongation of the conflict. The report states that the G7 countries' plan to offer Ukraine $50bn in 'stable, multi-year' financial assistance is crucial for addressing the country's growing financing requirements.

source: imf.org