Maldivian President Mohammed Muizzu, once a strong advocate of the “India out” policy, is now seeking India's support as the island nation faces a looming economic crisis. Muizzu, who begins a five-day visit to India on Sunday, is expected to ask for a bailout of hundreds of millions of dollars to prevent a debt default, highlighting the island nation's shifting approach to its ties with Delhi.
The Maldives' foreign exchange reserves have plunged to just $440 million—enough to cover only one-and-a-half months of imports. As financial pressures mount, Muizzu told the BBC that he is confident India will step up to provide much-needed relief. “India is fully cognizant of our fiscal situation, and as one of our biggest development partners, will always be ready to ease our burden, find better alternatives and solutions to the challenges we face,” Muizzu stated in an email interview ahead of his visit.
A Change in Tone
Muizzu's conciliatory tone is a significant departure from the rhetoric he employed during his election campaign just a year ago. The campaign had centered on an “India out” policy, which demanded that Delhi withdraw its troops stationed in the Maldives. This stance had resonated with a portion of the Maldivian population that was uncomfortable with what they perceived as India's growing influence in their domestic affairs.
Despite the aggressive campaign, Muizzu has not directly addressed his previous anti-India stance. Instead, he now emphasizes diplomacy, saying, “We are confident that any differences can be addressed through open dialogue and mutual understanding.”
Last month, global ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the Maldives’ credit rating, warning that “default risks have risen materially.” However, Muizzu denied that the Maldives is on the brink of a sovereign debt default, assuring that the country would not join an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program to resolve its financial difficulties. Instead, he touted a “home-grown agenda,” which has raised eyebrows given the precarious state of the country's reserves.
But as Moody’s pointed out, the Maldives' foreign reserves remain insufficient to cover upcoming debt obligations—approximately $600 million in 2025 and over $1 billion in 2026. Muizzu’s visit to India is thus seen as a critical moment for his administration to secure the financial support it desperately needs.
A Strained Relationship with India
Muizzu’s call for India’s assistance comes at a time when relations between the two nations have been strained since he assumed office in November 2023. Unlike his predecessors, who traditionally made India their first foreign visit after being elected, Muizzu chose to travel to Turkey and China. His January visit to Beijing was particularly seen as a diplomatic snub to India.
Around the same time, controversy flared when three Maldivian officials made derogatory comments about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, further fueling tensions. Additionally, Muizzu had issued an ultimatum to India to withdraw around 80 troops stationed in the Maldives to maintain and operate two rescue and reconnaissance helicopters and a Dornier aircraft that India had donated years earlier. While a compromise was reached to replace the soldiers with Indian civilian technical staff, the incident highlighted the friction in the bilateral relationship.
Muizzu’s administration also decided not to renew a hydrographic survey agreement with India, signed by the previous government, which allowed Delhi to map the seabed in Maldivian waters. Defending his decision, Muizzu explained, “The decisions taken are based on our evolving domestic interests and strategic priorities. The will of the people, that elected me 10 months ago.”
Has the Maldives Realized Its Mistake?
Given the economic challenges now facing the Maldives, analysts suggest that Muizzu’s renewed engagement with India could be a realization of the risks associated with his earlier anti-India stance. Muizzu’s efforts to reduce India’s influence were partly aimed at forging closer ties with China, but Beijing has not provided the financial assistance that Male desperately needs.
In February, Muizzu allowed a Chinese research vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 3, to dock at Maldivian ports, much to Delhi’s displeasure. Some experts suggested the ship was there to gather data that could later be used for Chinese military operations. Despite this, Muizzu has rejected claims that his administration is pro-China. “I have made clear our foreign policy the day I took office—that it is a ‘Maldives First’ policy. Our relationships with other nations are guided by the principles of mutual respect and trust, non-interference, and the pursuit of peace and prosperity,” he said.
Muizzu insists that his administration is committed to fostering peaceful cooperation in the Indian Ocean region. “We believe that through open communication and collaboration, we can address any concerns, contributing to a peaceful and prosperous Indian Ocean region,” he added.
However, the harsh reality facing Muizzu is that financial aid from China has not materialized in the way his administration likely anticipated. According to Azim Zahir, a Maldivian analyst, Muizzu’s visit to India represents “a realization of how dependent the Maldives is on India, a dependency that no other country will find easy to fill.”
Implications for India-Maldives Relations
Muizzu’s pivot back to India raises important questions about whether the Maldives has fully grasped the consequences of its earlier anti-India rhetoric. As the Maldives faces mounting debt and limited foreign reserves, the government seems to have realized that its economic survival hinges on India’s support. This realization may signal a deeper recalibration in Male’s foreign policy, one that acknowledges the irreplaceable role India plays as a regional power.
For India, the Maldives’ approach serves as a cautionary tale about the complexities of diplomacy in the Indian Ocean region, where the strategic rivalry between India and China often leaves smaller nations like the Maldives in a difficult balancing act. While Muizzu’s government may still seek to cultivate ties with Beijing, the financial realities of the situation appear to have prompted a recognition that India remains a vital partner.
The Maldivian president’s overtures to India, despite his previous stance, suggest that the costs of anti-India rhetoric may outweigh the benefits for smaller nations reliant on regional stability and economic support. The question now is whether this shift will lead to a sustained improvement in India-Maldives relations or if it is merely a temporary adjustment born out of necessity.
(Source:www.bbc.com)
The Maldives' foreign exchange reserves have plunged to just $440 million—enough to cover only one-and-a-half months of imports. As financial pressures mount, Muizzu told the BBC that he is confident India will step up to provide much-needed relief. “India is fully cognizant of our fiscal situation, and as one of our biggest development partners, will always be ready to ease our burden, find better alternatives and solutions to the challenges we face,” Muizzu stated in an email interview ahead of his visit.
A Change in Tone
Muizzu's conciliatory tone is a significant departure from the rhetoric he employed during his election campaign just a year ago. The campaign had centered on an “India out” policy, which demanded that Delhi withdraw its troops stationed in the Maldives. This stance had resonated with a portion of the Maldivian population that was uncomfortable with what they perceived as India's growing influence in their domestic affairs.
Despite the aggressive campaign, Muizzu has not directly addressed his previous anti-India stance. Instead, he now emphasizes diplomacy, saying, “We are confident that any differences can be addressed through open dialogue and mutual understanding.”
Last month, global ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the Maldives’ credit rating, warning that “default risks have risen materially.” However, Muizzu denied that the Maldives is on the brink of a sovereign debt default, assuring that the country would not join an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program to resolve its financial difficulties. Instead, he touted a “home-grown agenda,” which has raised eyebrows given the precarious state of the country's reserves.
But as Moody’s pointed out, the Maldives' foreign reserves remain insufficient to cover upcoming debt obligations—approximately $600 million in 2025 and over $1 billion in 2026. Muizzu’s visit to India is thus seen as a critical moment for his administration to secure the financial support it desperately needs.
A Strained Relationship with India
Muizzu’s call for India’s assistance comes at a time when relations between the two nations have been strained since he assumed office in November 2023. Unlike his predecessors, who traditionally made India their first foreign visit after being elected, Muizzu chose to travel to Turkey and China. His January visit to Beijing was particularly seen as a diplomatic snub to India.
Around the same time, controversy flared when three Maldivian officials made derogatory comments about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, further fueling tensions. Additionally, Muizzu had issued an ultimatum to India to withdraw around 80 troops stationed in the Maldives to maintain and operate two rescue and reconnaissance helicopters and a Dornier aircraft that India had donated years earlier. While a compromise was reached to replace the soldiers with Indian civilian technical staff, the incident highlighted the friction in the bilateral relationship.
Muizzu’s administration also decided not to renew a hydrographic survey agreement with India, signed by the previous government, which allowed Delhi to map the seabed in Maldivian waters. Defending his decision, Muizzu explained, “The decisions taken are based on our evolving domestic interests and strategic priorities. The will of the people, that elected me 10 months ago.”
Has the Maldives Realized Its Mistake?
Given the economic challenges now facing the Maldives, analysts suggest that Muizzu’s renewed engagement with India could be a realization of the risks associated with his earlier anti-India stance. Muizzu’s efforts to reduce India’s influence were partly aimed at forging closer ties with China, but Beijing has not provided the financial assistance that Male desperately needs.
In February, Muizzu allowed a Chinese research vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 3, to dock at Maldivian ports, much to Delhi’s displeasure. Some experts suggested the ship was there to gather data that could later be used for Chinese military operations. Despite this, Muizzu has rejected claims that his administration is pro-China. “I have made clear our foreign policy the day I took office—that it is a ‘Maldives First’ policy. Our relationships with other nations are guided by the principles of mutual respect and trust, non-interference, and the pursuit of peace and prosperity,” he said.
Muizzu insists that his administration is committed to fostering peaceful cooperation in the Indian Ocean region. “We believe that through open communication and collaboration, we can address any concerns, contributing to a peaceful and prosperous Indian Ocean region,” he added.
However, the harsh reality facing Muizzu is that financial aid from China has not materialized in the way his administration likely anticipated. According to Azim Zahir, a Maldivian analyst, Muizzu’s visit to India represents “a realization of how dependent the Maldives is on India, a dependency that no other country will find easy to fill.”
Implications for India-Maldives Relations
Muizzu’s pivot back to India raises important questions about whether the Maldives has fully grasped the consequences of its earlier anti-India rhetoric. As the Maldives faces mounting debt and limited foreign reserves, the government seems to have realized that its economic survival hinges on India’s support. This realization may signal a deeper recalibration in Male’s foreign policy, one that acknowledges the irreplaceable role India plays as a regional power.
For India, the Maldives’ approach serves as a cautionary tale about the complexities of diplomacy in the Indian Ocean region, where the strategic rivalry between India and China often leaves smaller nations like the Maldives in a difficult balancing act. While Muizzu’s government may still seek to cultivate ties with Beijing, the financial realities of the situation appear to have prompted a recognition that India remains a vital partner.
The Maldivian president’s overtures to India, despite his previous stance, suggest that the costs of anti-India rhetoric may outweigh the benefits for smaller nations reliant on regional stability and economic support. The question now is whether this shift will lead to a sustained improvement in India-Maldives relations or if it is merely a temporary adjustment born out of necessity.
(Source:www.bbc.com)